The Guardian, January 24. The Italian prime minister is up to his neck in the scandal, even though polls show the contrary. But who could replace it?
Silvio Berlusconi is at loggerheads. Under investigation for paying a 17 year old girl for sex, for extortion and abuse of power, the histrionic Italian Prime Minister faces the biggest challenge of his life. Often the sex scandals mark the end of a career in politics and more scandals overwhelm a party, the greater the suffering at the polls. But strangely, the Knight - as is well known Berlusconi - appear to experience exactly the opposite. According to a poll published Sunday in Corriere della Sera, the consensus for Berlusconi's party, the People of Freedom (PDL) has actually increased since December, from 27.6% to 30.2%. During the same period, the consensus for the major opposition parties have declined. The Democratic Party (PD) and Italy of Values \u200b\u200b(IDV), the parties center-left that led to the attacks on the integrity of Berlusconi, suffered a drop in approval, respectively, from 25.0% to 24.5% and from 6.2% to 5.5%. Berlusconi is defying the law of gravity in politics.
But as we do that? There are two reasons. The first, shocking as it may seem, is that the sex scandal is well suited carefully constructed public image of Berlusconi. Since entering politics in 1994, Berlusconi has built its success posing as a person with whom everyone can sympathize and identify with which everyone would like. Un bon bon vivant who makes no secret of his love for the rich, wine and women, has projected image not only as an entrepreneur who has made himself, but also as a normal man who does not hide his weaknesses all too human, with the same mundane tastes of the average Italian. The prime minister embodies the Italian dream: he loves football and is the owner of AC Milan, is a successful businessman, is a television mogul who loves to surround himself with beautiful women. And his alleged involvement with Karima "Ruby" el-Mahroug only serves to reinforce the key elements of this picture. Regardless of the morality of the case, Berlusconi continues to live a life they aspire to many Italians.
Second, the greater the pressure on Berlusconi's resignation, more Italians are forced to contemplate the alternative. That there are not many. There are only three options when Berlusconi resigns. The most likely is an unstable center-right coalition led by the ambitious and confrontational Gianfranco Fini. This is not only a former fascist who in the past expressed admiration for Mussolini, but has also been shown to not be able to manage the center-right in an effective manner with at least two failed attempts to overthrow the government of Berlusconi in the past. Rightly, many Italians still feel fine as unreliable at best and dangerous at worst.
The second possibility is a minority coalition of center-left led ineffectiveness PD leader, Pier Luigi Bersani. The big problem is that Bersani of the center-left is hopelessly fragmented and failed to offer a coherent solution to the worsening economic conditions in Italy. Neither the PD nor any of its allies are able to convince the Italians to be reliable enough to govern.
The final option is a compromise. In the absence of a clear successor, President Giorgio Napolitano may decide to appoint a technocrat to head an interim government before holding elections. The absence of a popular mandate and the debilitating effects of the elections at a time of economic instability make this a deeply unpopular choice.
The majority of Italians, therefore, opted for the solution: "Better the lesser evil."
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